Sabato’s Crystal Ball updated its predictions regarding four Senate elections scheduled for 2022 to favor Republicans more strongly.
On Tuesday, Virginia’s Republicans — who won Virginia by ten points in 2020 — won the state elections. Glenn Youngkin easily defeated Terry McAuliffe, a Democratic candidate, while Winsome Sears won the position of lieutenant governor over Hala Ayala. Jason Miyares was defeated by Mark Herring, who was running for attorney general.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball – a political newsletter published at the University of Virginia Center for Politics – called the results “horrible” for Democrats in a Wednesday newsletter.
Needless to say, this is a horrible result for Democrats, and for the White House. Youngkin’s 2-point victory (based on the results as of Wednesday morning) represented an 11-point shift in the GOP’s favor from 4 years ago, when now-Gov. Ralph Northam (D) won by almost 9 points. Going back a bit further to 2013, McAuliffe won by 2.5 points that year — last night’s result was a near-mirror image of that. Map 1 compares McAuliffe’s showing 8 years ago to his result last night.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball updated the odds for four 2020 Senate elections, citing the Biden administration’s numerous failures, such as gas prices and inflation. The races in Arizona and Nevada went from “Leans Democratic to Toss-Up”, while Colorado’s race moved from “Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic.”
Given the usual presidential party midterm drag, and the poor environment, our ratings are just too bullish on Democrats. So we are downgrading Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Raphael Warnock (D-GA), and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) from Leans Democratic to Toss-up. While we have not been particularly impressed with Republican candidate recruiting in these races — former NFL star and Trump favorite Herschel Walker seems like a particularly risky choice in Georgia, assuming he wins the nomination — these moves are almost entirely about the environment. Moreover, even if Republicans don’t end up running strong candidates in these races, all 3 states are markedly less blue than Virginia.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball now has 49 Senate seats in Republican and 47 in Democratic columns — with four being toss-ups. “This is a close race for Senate, but one Republicans are better-positioned for to win, especially if the environment continues to be as poor as it currently is for Democrats.”
“It must be said: If Biden’s approval rating is in the low-to-mid 40s next year, as it is now, everything we know about political trends and history suggests that the Democrats’ tiny majorities in the House and Senate are at major risk of becoming minorities,” the analysis added.
A memo circulated among congressional Republicans following election night and stated that candidates should follow Youngkin’s example in 2022. According to the document, Republicans can and must be “the party of parents”, emphasizing education and disavowing vaccine mandates. Republicans also intend to “back blue” and “focus upon the failures in the Biden economy.”
